Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

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Incognito
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Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Incognito » 26 déc. 2012, 12:10:00

Tim Duy est un excellent commentateur de la politique monétaire américaine.

Missing The Big Japan Story
Tim Duy - 26 décembre 2012

The potential exists for groundbreaking changes in Japanese economic policy - and I sense that Western journalists, caught up in the current celebration of central bankers, are missing the bigger story. In my opinion, a higher inflation target by the Bank of Japan is not particularly interesting. After all, the Bank of Japan can't hit the current "goal" of 1 percent inflation. I don't have much faith that renaming the "goal" a "target" and increasing it to 2 percent will be like waving a magic wand. But something much more significant is afoot - the possibility of explicit cooperation, albeit perhaps forced cooperation, between fiscal and monetary authorities. The loss of the Bank of Japan's independence to force the direct monetization of deficit spending is the real story.
Dieu est mort. Marx est mort. Et moi-même je ne me sens pas très bien ... (Woody Allen)

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Incognito » 13 janv. 2013, 18:05:08

Le Japon tente une relance à 87 milliards d'euros
En dépit du niveau record de la dette publique, le nouveau gouvernement japonais enclenche un vaste plan de relance, tourné notamment vers les infrastructures.

Pour Shinzo Abe, le Premier ministre japonais, l'austérité, telle qu'elle est pratiquée en Europe, n'était pas une option. Malgré le gonflement de la dette publique nippone, qui dépasse les 220% du PIB, son gouvernement a indiqué, ce vendredi matin, qu'il allait accroître encore son endettement sur l'actuel exercice fiscal pour enclencher immédiatement un plan de relance exceptionnel de l'économie domestique.

Au total, l'Etat central va débloquer 10.300 milliards de yens (87 milliards d'euros) pour tenter de relancer l'activité dans l'archipel, qui est entré en fin d'année dernière en récession technique. Une large partie de ce programme sera financé par l'émission de nouvelles obligations.

« Nous devons mener de front une politique monétaire audacieuse, une politique budgétaire souple et une stratégie de croissance pour accélérer l'investissement privé afin de renouer avec une économie forte », a martelé le nouveau chef de gouvernement, qui a ramené le Parti libéral démocrate (LDP) au pouvoir lors des législatives de décembre dernier. Renouant avec les vieilles recettes keynesiennes pratiquées pendant des décennies par le parti conservateur, il a promis de consacrer 3.800 milliards de yens au financement de travaux publics, et notamment au renforcement de routes ou de tunnels. Les travaux de reconstruction dans les régions touchées par le tsunami de mars 2011 seront aussi accélérés.
Je rappelle que le déficit budgétaire était déjà élevé avant l'annonce de ce plan de relance. Ce qu'il y a de particulièrement intéressant, c'est la quasi-absence de réaction des rendements obligataires sur la dette japonaise. Les taux à 10 ans sont aujourd'hui à 0.8%, à peine plus haut que leur minimum historique de 0.7%.
Dieu est mort. Marx est mort. Et moi-même je ne me sens pas très bien ... (Woody Allen)

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Incognito » 23 mars 2013, 00:42:45

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2013 ... overnment/
A hard-line pro-reflation economist will replace an anti-”Abenomics” scholar in a key senior Japanese government post next month, people close to the matter said, in the latest example of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe surrounding himself with likeminded staff willing to do whatever it takes to beat chronic price falls.
Dieu est mort. Marx est mort. Et moi-même je ne me sens pas très bien ... (Woody Allen)

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Narbonne » 23 mars 2013, 08:48:38

Cela montre que faire tourner la machine à billets cela marche au Japon et aux US. On attend quoi ?
Ils ne savaient pas que c'était impossible, alors ils l'ont fait.

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par FIFE » 23 mars 2013, 09:54:39

Narbonne a écrit :Cela montre que faire tourner la machine à billets cela marche au Japon et aux US. On attend quoi ?
On n'a plus de machines à billets, c'est l'UE qui les a ....

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par El Fredo » 23 mars 2013, 11:16:23

Reste plus qu'à remplacer nos banquiers allemands icon_mrgreen
If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst into the sky, that would be like the splendor of the Mighty One— I am become Death, the shatterer of Worlds.

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Incognito » 04 avr. 2013, 12:06:05

Première réunion de la Banque du Japon depuis la nomination du nouveau gouverneur et de deux nouveaux vice-président en Mars. Et premières décisions d'assouplissement monétaire.

Première page sur le site du Financial Times. Rien vu dans la presse financière francaise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-0 ... eting.html
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda began his campaign to end 15 years of falling prices by doubling monthly bond purchases in a bid to reach 2 percent inflation in two years.

The BOJ will purchase 7.5 trillion yen ($78.6 billion) of bonds a month and double the monetary base in two years, the central bank said in Tokyo today. HSBC Holdings Plc. and Nomura Securities Co. said the easing is the nation’s biggest yet.

The yen fell the most since October 2011 and stocks surged, signaling Kuroda is winning investors’ confidence in a campaign to revive the world’s third-biggest economy. The BOJ set a two- year horizon for the price goal under a “new phase of monetary easing,” as the governor won the backing of a board mostly appointed by the previous government.

“It’s fast and furious,” said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, and formerly of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “The specific mention of a two-year time horizon was a positive surprise.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) rose 2.2 percent after falling earlier and is up 45 percent from mid-November. The yen slid 2.5 percent to 95.38 per dollar at 6:18 p.m. in Tokyo, the largest one-day decline since October 2011. Yields on 10-year Japanese bonds touched a record low of 0.425 percent.
Call Rate

The BOJ said it changed the target for money-market operations from the overnight call rate to the monetary base -- cash in circulation and the money that financial institutions have on deposit at the central bank. It predicts the measure will grow to 270 trillion yen by the end of 2014. The BOJ dropped limits on the maturities of debt it buys.

The average remaining maturity of government bonds to be purchased by the bank will be about seven years under the new plan, compared with less than three previously. Monthly bond purchases stood at an average of about 3.4 trillion yen in the first quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

At stake is sustaining growth after three recessions in five years. Lawmakers can question Kuroda tomorrow during his second set of confirmation hearings in parliament.

The bank will increase holdings of exchange-traded funds and real-estate investment trusts, by 1 trillion yen and 30 billion yen per year respectively. The BOJ scrapped the asset- purchase program set up by former Governor Masaaki Shirakawa that was previously its main tool for easing, and said it will buy bonds with maturities of as much as 40 years.
Banknote Rule

Under a so-called banknote rule, the BOJ had pledged to keep the value of its bond holdings below the amount of cash in circulation, excluding securities held under its asset-purchase program. That guideline is “temporarily suspended,” the central bank said.

Only one board member, Takahide Kiuchi, voted against any of Kuroda’s policy proposals.

The new policies will “lead Japan’s economy to overcome deflation that has lasted nearly 15 years,” the central bank said in the statement.

“Today’s decision clearly heralds a regime change at the BOJ,” said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist in Tokyo at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset & Management. “Kuroda has embarked on an experiment of whether boosting the monetary base can prop up economic growth and eradicate deflation.”

Not everyone is confident that Kuroda’s plan will work. Former BOJ board member Atsushi Mizuno last month said more bond purchases could inflate a market bubble, while Kazumasa Iwata, a former deputy governor, deemed Kuroda’s two-year goal impossible. Prices excluding fresh food haven’t risen 2 percent in any year since 1997, when a sales tax was increased.
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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Nombrilist » 04 avr. 2013, 12:15:47

Tu m'étonnes qu'on n'a rien vu dans la presse française. Tu ne voudrais quand même pas qu'elle donne raison à Mélenchon?

Incognito
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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Incognito » 04 avr. 2013, 15:34:34

Pour ceux que ca intéresse, un commentaire de Gavyn Davies du Financial Times:
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2013/04 ... -steroids/
Dieu est mort. Marx est mort. Et moi-même je ne me sens pas très bien ... (Woody Allen)

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Incognito » 04 avr. 2013, 18:58:57

15 years too late: Reviving Japan (the ECB should watch and learn)
After 15 years of deflationary policies the Bank of Japan now clearly is changing course. That should be clear to everybody after today’s policy announcement from the Bank of Japan. I don’t have a lot of writing here other than I will say this is extremely good news. Good for Japan and good for the global economy and what the BoJ is doing is nearly textbook style monetary easing. The only minus is that the BOJ is targeting inflation and not the NGDP level, but anyway I am pretty convinced this will work and work soon.

Anyway lets pay tribute to Milton Friedman. This is Uncle Milty in 1998 in his article “Reviving Japan”:
The surest road to a healthy economic recovery is to increase the rate of monetary growth, to shift from tight money to easier money, to a rate of monetary growth closer to that which prevailed in the golden 1980s but without again overdoing it. That would make much-needed financial and economic reforms far easier to achieve.

Defenders of the Bank of Japan will say, “How? The bank has already cut its discount rate to 0.5 percent. What more can it do to increase the quantity of money?”

The answer is straightforward: The Bank of Japan can buy government bonds on the open market, paying for them with either currency or deposits at the Bank of Japan, what economists call high-powered money. Most of the proceeds will end up in commercial banks, adding to their reserves and enabling them to expand their liabilities by loans and open market purchases. But whether they do so or not, the money supply will increase.

There is no limit to the extent to which the Bank of Japan can increase the money supply if it wishes to do so. Higher monetary growth will have the same effect as always. After a year or so, the economy will expand more rapidly; output will grow, and after another delay, inflation will increase moderately. A return to the conditions of the late 1980s would rejuvenate Japan and help shore up the rest of Asia.
This is what the BoJ announced today:
Under this guideline, the monetary base — whose amount outstanding was 138 trillion yen at end-2012 — is expected to reach 200 trillion yen at end-2013 and 270 trillion yen at end-2014.

The monthly flow of JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) purchases is expected to become 7+ trillion yen on a gross basis.

The Bank will achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years. In order to do so, it will enter a new phase of monetary easing both in terms of quantity and quality. It will double the monetary base and the amounts outstanding of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as well as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in two years, and more than double the average remaining maturity of JGB purchases.
After 15 years the BoJ is finally listening to Friedman’s advice and I am sure it will do a lot to revive the Japanese economy. In fact the BoJ is doing more than listening to Milton Friedman. The BoJ is also listening to the Market Monetarist message of using the Chuck Norris Effect by guiding market expectations. Good work Kuroda.

And finally a message to ECB boss Mario Draghi. If you want to end the euro crisis just copy-paste today’s BoJ statement. You have the same inflation target anyway. It is not really that hard to do.
Dieu est mort. Marx est mort. Et moi-même je ne me sens pas très bien ... (Woody Allen)

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par politicien » 17 mai 2013, 18:31:05

Bonjour,
Des responsables européens voudraient s'inspirer des Japonais, qui ont inondé leur économie de liquidités pour doper la croissance, mais des économistes préviennent que la reprise nippone pourrait ne durer qu'un an.

Avec son augmentation du produit intérieur brut (PIB) de 0,9 % au premier trimestre par rapport au précédent (3,5 % en rythme annualisé), les statistiques publiées jeudi à Tokyo ont fait saliver des hommes politiques du Vieux Continent, jusqu'au président français François Hollande, dont le pays vient d'entrer en récession. Ce redémarrage est d'autant plus notable que depuis vingt ans l'économie japonaise n'a crû en moyenne que de 0,85 % par an, freinée entre autres par une déflation persistante que le nouveau Premier ministre de droite, Shinzo Abe, a promis de vaincre en poussant la Banque du Japon (BoJ) à déverser des flots d'argent dans les circuits. "L'économie japonaise est clairement en phase de reprise", se réjouit Tomo Kinoshita, économiste au groupe de services financiers Nomura. Il souligne la vigueur de la consommation, "soutenue par la dépréciation du yen et la montée des indices boursiers, sur fond d'espoir renaissant".

Le tournant de 2014
Depuis la dissolution de la chambre des députés mi-novembre qui avait fait de Shinzo Abe le favori pour accéder au pouvoir - ce qu'il a fait un mois plus tard - le yen a perdu plus d'un quart de sa valeur face au dollar et à l'euro. L'indice Nikkei de la Bourse de Tokyo s'est envolé dans le même temps de 70 %. Comme nombre de ses confrères, Tomo Kinoshita crédite Shinzo Abe d'avoir redonné confiance à une population un peu déprimée, qui devrait selon lui consommer davantage grâce aux retombées positives de coups de pouce budgétaires. Le gouvernement a en effet consacré plus de 40 milliards d'euros aux travaux publics dans son budget annuel, qui s'ajoutent à une somme voisine déjà intégrée dans un plan de relance mis sur les rails en janvier.

(...)

L'intégralité de cet article à lire sur Le Point.fr
Qu'en pensez vous ?
« Je ne suis pas d’accord avec ce que vous dites, mais je me battrai jusqu’au bout pour que vous puissiez le dire » Le débat ne s'arrête jamais sur Actu-Politique

Incognito
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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par Incognito » 02 août 2013, 00:17:42

Abenomics as a Fulfillment of Milton Friedman's Policy Prescriptions
David Beckworth - 31 juillet 2013

Today would be Milton Friedman's 101st birthday. What better way to celebrate his birthday than to recognize that Abenomics is largely a fulfillment of the policy prescriptions he outlined for Japan 13 years ago. Here is Friedman in 2000 (my bold):
[T]he Bank of Japan’s argument is, “Oh well, we’ve got the interest rate down to zero; what more can we do?” It’s very simple. They can buy long-term government securities, and they can keep buying them and providing high-powered money until the high powered money starts getting the economy in an expansion. What Japan needs is a more expansive domestic monetary policy.
In other words, Friedman was calling for large scale asset purchases (LSAPs) long before it was vogue and understood that for the purchases to help the economy there must be a sufficiently large and permanent expansion of the monetary base. On the latter point, Friedman knew that even though the monetary base and treasuries may be near perfect substitutes in a zero lower bound environment, they would not be in the future. And since investors make decisions on what they think will happen in the future, a monetary base injection that is expected to be permanent and greater than the demand for the it in the future is likely to affect spending today.

The importance of the public believing the monetary base expansion will be permanent can be illustrated by looking back to the early part of the Great Depression. As seen in the figures below, the monetary base grew rapidly between 1929 and early 1933 compared to previous growth. Yet during this time the money supply and nominal GDP continued to fall. The reason this monetary base growth did not stall the collapse of financial intermediation and aggregate spending is because it was still tied to the gold standard. Consequently, the public did net expect a large, permanent expansion of the monetary base. But that all changed with FDR in 1933. He created what Christy Romer calls a "monetary regime shift" both by signalling through articles, speeches, and movies a desire for a higher price level and by abandoning the gold standard which led to even more rapid monetary base expansion. This shift is apparent in the figures below. FDR's actions caused the public to expect a permanent monetary base expansion that would raise future nominal income. A sharp recovery followed in 1933. 1

Image

Image

The key, then, to making monetary policy expansions work in a slump is to create the expectation that at least some part of the monetary base expansion will be permanent. Japan's first try at quantitative easing in the early-to-mid 2000s failed on this front as noted by Scott Sumner and Michael Woodford. Here is Woodford:
The economic theory behind QE has always been flimsy...The problem is that, for this theory to apply, there must be a permanent increase in the monetary base. Yet after the Bank of Japan’s experiment with QE, the added reserves were all rapidly withdrawn in early 2006...
Well that was then and this is now. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has committed the government to a radical monetary regime shift that is similar in spirit to FDR's actions in 1933, as noted by Christy Romer. This program, called Abenomics, aims to permanently double the size of the monetary base and end the long run of deflation. It currently is engaged in asset purchases that are triple the size of the Fed's relative to GDP. And the Bank of Japan has committed to doing more if needed.2 So this is a big regime shift and one that arguably fulfills Milton Friedman's policy prescriptions for Japan.

It is too early to know for sure whether Abenomics is working, but the evidence so far suggest it is making a difference. Here is Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
Abenomics is working," says Klaus Baader, from Societe Generale. The economy has roared back to life with growth of 4pc over the past two quarters – the best in the G7 bloc this year. The Bank of Japan's business index is the highest since 2007. Equities have jumped 70pc since November, an electric wealth shock.

"Escaping 15 years of deflation is no easy matter," said Mr Abe this week, after winning control over both houses of parliament, yet it may at last be happening.

Prices have been rising for three months, and for six months in Tokyo. Department store sales rose 7.2pc in June from a year earlier, the strongest in 20 years.
I think Milton Friedman would be happy to see Abenomics if he were alive. Happy birthday Milton Friedman.
Dieu est mort. Marx est mort. Et moi-même je ne me sens pas très bien ... (Woody Allen)

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Re: Les japonais en ont marre de la déflation

Message non lu par El Fredo » 03 août 2013, 00:13:48

Très intéressant, et conforme aux modèles.
If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst into the sky, that would be like the splendor of the Mighty One— I am become Death, the shatterer of Worlds.

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